Ghana moved first and fast among the hardest-hit nations, increasing petrol prices by approximately 15% and diesel by 19% in a single adjustment that sent shockwaves through an already inflation-weary population. Malawi followed with increases above 30%, among the steepest on the continent. Tanzania, Mauritania, Gambia, Botswana, and Mali all announced fuel price hikes within days of each other, as governments struggled to avoid exhausting subsidies they can no longer afford.
The African Development Bank, which had already projected Africa would be the second-fastest-growing economic region globally in 2026, issued an urgent warning this week that the Iran war could shave between 0.2 and 1.5 percentage points from African economic growth, depending on how long the conflict continues. The bank noted that Africa’s economies were already under pressure from high debt servicing costs, with debt consuming more than 31% of government revenues across the continent.
South Africa bucked the continental trend, choosing to cut its fuel levy in April to ease immediate cost-of-living pressure on citizens, even as the government faces its own fiscal constraints. Authorities in Pretoria acknowledged the move was a short-term measure rather than a sustainable policy.
Nigeria’s government issued an appeal for caution following renewed xenophobic tensions in South Africa, where anti-migrant sentiment has flared against a backdrop of economic stress. South Africa deployed 2,200 soldiers to crime hotspots across five provinces this week, a measure that experts warn may intensify community tensions rather than resolve underlying economic grievances.
The cruel irony for African oil-importing nations is that the crisis offers no easy alternative. Their limited domestic refining capacity, dependence on imported fuel, and constrained government budgets leave most African governments with only painful choices between passing costs onto consumers or draining fiscal reserves that were already thin before the war began.
