Satellite imagery analyzed by international monitoring groups this week showed continued evidence of large-scale destruction in and around Darfur’s key population centers, with independent investigators saying the evidence points to mass atrocity crimes committed during and after the RSF offensive. The RSF has established a rival administrative structure based in Nyala, the South Darfur capital, effectively splitting Sudan into two competing governance zones.
The Sudanese Armed Forces, which benefit from greater international diplomatic legitimacy, are headquartered in Port Sudan. The SAF-RSF divide has calcified into what analysts describe as a de facto partition of the country, with no serious peace negotiations currently underway and both sides continuing to receive external military support from different foreign powers.
Approximately four million Sudanese have fled the country since the war began, the largest refugee displacement from a single conflict in Africa since the Rwandan genocide. Egypt, Chad, and South Sudan are hosting the largest concentrations of Sudanese refugees, straining services in nations that were already managing significant domestic economic challenges.
The Quad for Sudan initiative, involving the United States, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, announced a roadmap earlier this year to end the conflict, but diverging interests among the four nations have prevented a unified enforcement mechanism from emerging. Fighting has continued unabated despite the diplomatic framework.
African Union attempts at mediation have struggled to gain traction, with the continental body’s credibility questioned by member states on all sides. The crisis in Sudan now directly threatens the stability of South Sudan, where the fragile 2018 peace agreement is showing signs of collapse, raising the prospect of two simultaneous civil wars merging into a regional catastrophe across northeastern Africa.
