Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) celebrated another state election victory this week, with confetti raining down at BJP headquarters in New Delhi as Modi waved to jubilant supporters on May 4, 2026. The outcome strengthens Modi’s political position at the midpoint of his record third consecutive term in office. But the headline story of Indian politics right now runs deeper than state polls. India’s energy security, its place in the global oil trade, and its economic future now hinge on what happens in the Strait of Hormuz.
India is one of the world’s largest oil importers. Before the U.S.-Israel war against Iran began on February 28, 2026, India received a significant portion of its energy supply through the Strait of Hormuz. When Iran closed the strait, India faced immediate and serious consequences. Between March 14 and March 24, the Indian Navy evacuated five Indian-flagged LPG carriers from the strait across three separate operations under Operation Sankalp, escorting the vessels through the Gulf of Oman to safety. Iran, meanwhile, specified that ships from India — among a small group of approved nations including China, Russia, Iraq, and Pakistan — could continue to transit the strait. That exemption gave India critical breathing room. But it has not ended the uncertainty.
India has tried to walk a careful diplomatic line since the war began. New Delhi issued a statement this week that it “continues to stand for dialogue and diplomacy” and called for “free and unimpeded navigation and commerce through the Strait of Hormuz in keeping with international law.” India said it stands ready to support peaceful resolution efforts. The statement carefully avoided condemning either the United States or Iran by name. That neutrality reflects the reality of India’s strategic position: it has close defence ties with the U.S. and Israel but also relies on Gulf energy supplies and maintains deep economic connections with Iran.
The conflict has wider implications for India’s development agenda. Kenya’s announcement this week that it expects to begin commercial oil production from the South Lokichar fields in Turkana before the end of 2026, producing between 20,000 and 50,000 barrels per day, illustrates how African nations are positioning to enter the oil market just as Persian Gulf supplies face disruption. This is an emerging dynamic that energy planners in New Delhi, Beijing, and Brussels are watching closely.
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For Modi, the political calculus is complex. Fuel and energy prices in India have risen as a result of the strait closure and the broader commodity price shock from the U.S.-Iran war. Opposition parties have seized on the inflation narrative ahead of future elections. Modi’s government has responded by diversifying India’s energy supply sources, deepening LNG purchase agreements with the United States and Australia, and accelerating domestic renewable energy investment.
The BJP’s state-level victories confirm that Modi’s political coalition remains solid at home. But managing India’s energy exposure in a world where the Strait of Hormuz remains a war zone, and where a new American pope and a volatile U.S. president are openly clashing over the morality of the conflict, is among the most complex geopolitical challenges any Indian leader has faced. India’s continued engagement in multilateral forums, including the United Nations Security Council and regional ASEAN dialogues, will be critical in shaping whether diplomacy or escalation defines the next chapter.
